This summer’s Fraser River sockeye salmon run surprised many by exceeding expectations with a return estimated at 9.6 million fish—far above the initial forecast of about 3 million.
At first glance, these numbers seem like a hopeful sign for a species long in trouble. But experts warn this spike masks the hard truth: BC sockeye salmon populations remain in decline overall, and this “good year” should not be mistaken for recovery.
“Although this year is good, it is in the context that the salmon have not been doing really well in the past, and it will continue even though we have a good year this year,” William Cheung, associate professor at the University of British Columbia’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, told the Canadian Press.
Greg Taylor, fisheries adviser for the Watershed Watch Salmon Society, also told the Canadian Press that while this year is “a wonderful and exciting year” for salmon, “we have to be careful when we say salmon are doing well since they’re doing about the same as they used to.”
The Illusion of Recovery: Cycles and Anomalies
Scientific monitoring shows that while a few Fraser sockeye runs have rebounded temporarily in recent years, the long-term trend remains downward. A recent Fisheries and Oceans Canada Recovery Potential Assessment warns that many of the Fraser’s nine Designatable Units are still listed as Threatened or Endangered and continue to show “declining trends in abundance… over the last several decades.”
Novel techniques such as sediment-core biomarkers back up those findings: researchers tracking sterol and nitrogen signatures in lake sediments found that historical sockeye abundance has fluctuated but overall declined across more than a century, providing an independent, long-term record of shrinking populations.
Some key numbers about wild salmon:
- Over 70% of salmon populations in British Columbia & Yukon are currently below their long-term average abundance.
- Sockeye runs in the Skeena River have dropped about 75% since 1913.
- Another report finds that some BC salmon stocks (including sockeye) have declined by 70% to 93% since the early 1990s.
The Salmon Farming Controversy
The Namgis First Nation reported that on August 28, a research team found hundreds of sea lice per juvenile salmon near Port Hardy.
The lice on the sampled fish were in the larval stage, which survives only a few days before it must attach to a host. Finding that many larvae means the fish swam through a cloud of newly released lice very recently.
The sampling sites were directly downstream of the ten remaining open-net pens in the Port Hardy area, and the juvenile salmon were just beginning their ocean migration. According to the research team, the salmon had not yet reached any other potential source of infection.
Monitoring studies show that in truly wild conditions, juvenile salmon carry only trace levels of sea lice, often less than one parasite per fish on average. For example, a baseline survey of near-pristine coastal sites in British Columbia found roughly 0.01 lice per juvenile salmon.
Fish farms also spread bacterial diseases, often with fatal results. A 2022 study concluded that Atlantic salmon farms are a likely source of Tenacibaculum maritimum infections detected on juvenile sockeye, with infection probability peaking near the Discovery Islands farms that sat astride Fraser out-migration routes.
Multiple peer-reviewed studies in British Columbia have found evidence linking salmon farming operations to elevated Piscine Orthoreovirus (PRV-1) infection in wild salmon. One study showed that wild salmon in regions more heavily exposed to salmon farms have significantly higher PRV infection rates (37% to 45%) versus those in low farm-exposure regions (5%), with farmed Atlantic salmon testing ~95% positive.
PRV-1 is the known primary cause of heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI), which can impair swimming performance, reduce growth, and in severe outbreaks lead to mortality.
Industry-aligned sources have recently highlighted papers arguing little or no link between fish farms and lice on wild salmon; however, scientists pointed out that some papers minimize farm contribution by relying heavily on farm-reported lice data or secondary data, and that authors in some of these papers have strong industry ties.
Shifting Baselines: When Normal Fades From Memory
The concept of shifting baselines describes how each generation accepts the ecological condition experienced in their youth as “normal,” which means that gradual declines in populations or ecosystems are seldom fully appreciated.
As fisheries scientist Daniel Pauly originally put it: “Each generation of fisheries scientist accepts as baseline the stock situation that occurred at the beginning of their careers, and uses this to evaluate changes. When the next generation starts its career, the stocks have further declined, but it is the stocks at that time that serve as a new baseline.”
Because many monitoring programs and public expectations are based on data from recent decades, the long-term severity of decline—dating back to times when returns were much higher—is underrepresented in current conversation. In short: what looks like a “good year” now may simply be above a lowered baseline, rather than returning to historical norms.
The Road Ahead: Vigilance and Commitment Required
This year’s numbers uplifted spirits, but experts underscore the urgent need for sustained commitment from governments, Indigenous peoples, scientists, fishers, and the public.
Speaking to the Canadian Press, Taylor stressed the importance of celebrating good salmon seasons.
“Good salmon runs offer fishing opportunities that we shouldn’t lose sight of,” he said.
